Many economists will be outraged by the following statement made by Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, at his address to the Australian Business Economists Annual Dinner:
I do not know anyone who predicted this course of events. This should give us cause to reflect on how hard a job it is to make genuinely useful forecasts. What we have seen is truly a ‘tail’ outcome – the kind of outcome that the routine forecasting process never predicts. But it has occurred, it has implications, and so we must reflect on it.
A number of economists have been warning about this for years, including
- Nouriel Roubini, Chairman of RGE monitor;
- Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital, Inc.; and
- Steve Keen, Associate Professor at the School of Economics and Finance at the University of Western Sydney, who maintains the site Steve Keen’s Oz Debtwatch.
It makes you wonder if he listens to anybody outside his board meetings.
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